WEEKEND VIDEOS, September 24:
Saturday, September 24, 2016
The Libertarian Failure On Climate Change
We should be building NEW coal plants?!?! We are spending too MUCH on New Energy?!?! Well, we know what this guy has been smoking… From greenmanbucket via YouTube
New Energy Is Doable – And Is Being Done
There are countries around the world taking advantage of their New Energy Resources. The U.S. is not. There are reasons but there is no excuse. From Seeker Daily via YouTube
Friday, September 23, 2016
World Gets A Step Closer To Enforceable Climate Laws
Climate Deal Comes One Step Closer to Reality at United Nations; Nearly enough countries have signed on to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
September 22, 2016 (Reuters via Fortune)
"An agreement to fight global warming came one step closer to taking effect on…[D]ozens of countries deposited their ratification of the deal at the United Nations, taking the total to 60, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said…The deal, agreed by nearly 200 countries in Paris last December, needs ratification by at least 55 countries representing 55% of global carbon dioxide emissions to take effect. Ban said the 60 countries represented more than 47.5%...
The United Nations said 14 countries, representing 12.58% of emissions, have committed to joining the agreement in 2016, which would allow the threshold of 55% of global carbon dioxide emissions to be reached…The binding global deal would slash greenhouse gases, keeping global temperature increases to ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius. Scientists warn that countries are likely to cross that threshold if they don’t take more drastic actions…The Paris agreement received a boost [when] U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping submitted their plan to join the agreement. The world’s two biggest emitters account for around 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions…”
The United Nations said 14 countries, representing 12.58% of emissions, have committed to joining the agreement in 2016, which would allow the threshold of 55% of global carbon dioxide emissions to be reached…The binding global deal would slash greenhouse gases, keeping global temperature increases to ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius. Scientists warn that countries are likely to cross that threshold if they don’t take more drastic actions…The Paris agreement received a boost [when] U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping submitted their plan to join the agreement. The world’s two biggest emitters account for around 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions…”click here for more
New Energy Ready To Power The World Future
Wind and solar power enjoy a decade of massive growth: World Energy Council
Anmar Frangoul, 20 September 2016 (CNBC)
"Renewable sources of power including hydroelectric and solar represent around 30 percent of the world's total capacity and 23 percent of total global electricity production, according to Variable Renewables Integration in Electricity Systems 2016 – How to get it right from the World Energy Council (WEC)…[In the last 10 years wind and solar power have seen growth] of 23 percent and 50 percent…[and] $286 billion was invested in 154 gigawatts of [New Energy] in 2015, with China's spending on renewable sources representing 36 percent of global investments…[The report drew on] 32 country case studies, representing roughly 90 percent of global installed solar and wind capacity.” click here for more
Sahara Sun Could Power The World
We Could Power The Entire World By Harnessing Solar Energy From 1% Of The Sahara
Mehran Moalem, September 22, 2016 (Forbes)
“The total world energy usage (coal+oil+hydroelectric+nuclear+renewable) in 2015 was 13,000 Million Ton Oil Equivalent (13,000 MTOE)…This translates to 17.3 Terawatts continuous power during the year…[I]f we cover an area of the Earth 335 kilometers by 335 kilometers with solar panels, even with moderate efficiencies achievable easily today, it will provide more than 17,4 TW power. This area is 43,000 square miles…That means 1.2% of the Sahara desert is sufficient to cover all of the energy needs of the world in solar energy. There is no way coal, oil, wind, geothermal or nuclear can compete with this. The cost of the project will be about five trillion dollars, one time cost at today’s prices without any economy of scale savings. That is less than the bail out cost of banks by Obama in the last recession…and equal to 10% of world one year GDP. So this cost is rather small compared to other spending in the world. There is no future in other energy forms…
…[D]amaging the desert ecosystem…is the least concern of all. The proposed project as shown only needs 1.2% of the African Sahara to replace all forms of energy production in the world. That is such a miniscule part compared to the total desert area in the world…Also it will save vast tracts of land that are currently suffering from strip mining for coal and from contamination by acid rain not to say anything about possible radioactive land regions in case of nuclear accidents. Furthermore, the Saharan ecosystem perhaps will flourish better in the shade under the backside of the panels. The current erosion of the deserts result in large sandstorms that contaminate and pollute the air in civilized parts of Africa and Middle East…Solar farms will actually benefit the life by stabilizing the sand...”
…[D]amaging the desert ecosystem…is the least concern of all. The proposed project as shown only needs 1.2% of the African Sahara to replace all forms of energy production in the world. That is such a miniscule part compared to the total desert area in the world…Also it will save vast tracts of land that are currently suffering from strip mining for coal and from contamination by acid rain not to say anything about possible radioactive land regions in case of nuclear accidents. Furthermore, the Saharan ecosystem perhaps will flourish better in the shade under the backside of the panels. The current erosion of the deserts result in large sandstorms that contaminate and pollute the air in civilized parts of Africa and Middle East…Solar farms will actually benefit the life by stabilizing the sand...”click here for more
World’s Biggest Offshore Wind Turbines Building Off UK Coast
Dong installs world’s largest wind turbines off UK coast
Susanna Twidale w/Susan Thomas, September 8, 2016 (Reuters)
“Dong Energy has installed the first of the world's largest wind turbines, which are taller and wider than the London Eye, at its Burbo Bank windfarm off the coast of Britain in the Irish Sea…The 32 turbines, made by Vestas, will each be able to generate 8 megawatts (MW) of electricity, stand 195 meters tall from sea level and have a rotor diameter of 164 meters…Combined, the 32 turbines will create enough electricity to power around 230,000 homes…The largest turbines currently installed, at Dong's Westermost Rough wind farm off the Yorkshire coast, in the North Sea, have a 6 MW capacity and are around 177 meters tall…Britain is seeking new electricity generation to replace its aging coal and nuclear power stations and has said around 10 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity could be installed by the end of the decade…” click here for more
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Why Having Babies Is The Climate Change Answer
Climate Change Requires Innovative Solutions, Not Population Control
Sam Mulopulos, September 20, 2016 (Huffington Post)
“…[Population engineering is not really a solution for climate change. Yes, people] beget more people, and more people beget pollution…[but instead] of focusing on population reduction efforts, those concerned about climate change should focus on pollution reduction and improving energy efficiency, which are themselves impossible without human capital…Aspiring population engineers argue that state-sponsored ad campaigns combined with ending tax breaks for families or levying fines on each additional child…[but they] have been beguiled by the ghost of antiquated thinking. Solutions don’t just appear out of nowhere. They are developed, tested, and tried through the collaborative efforts of countless people and communities…[T]he solution to international climate change will come…from the deliberate work of millions of people: diplomats, engineers, inventors, teachers, and, yes, parents who work collaboratively in a free market to share ideas, institute best practices, and design and implement the technology to fix the planet’s problems…” click here for more
Big Texas Wind Backed By Amazon
Amazon Builds Giant Wind Farm In Texas; The farm will feature 100 turbines.
Sophie Weiner, September 18, 2016 (Popular Mechanics)
“…[Amazon will finance] a massive new renewable energy project [in West Texas] dubbed Amazon Wind Farm Texas…[It] will hold over 100 massive wind turbines with a diameter larger than the wingspan of a Boeing 747…The project is expected to generate 1,000,000 megawatt hours of wind energy every year, enough to power 90,000 American homes for a year…Amazon already has wind farms in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio, and Virginia to power their cloud data servers. Amazon Web Services (AWS) says that 40% of their infrastructure will be powered by renewable energy by the end of the year, up from 25% in 2015.” click here for more
Big Sun Sparkles In Nevada
The Burning Beauty of Solar Energy in the Nevada Desert
Charley Locke, September 21, 2016 (Wired)
“…[From high above, Nevada’s] Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Facility is a bright flash on the landscape [outside Tonapah]. You can really only appreciate its enormity from the ground: 1,670 acres of desert blanketed with 10,347 billboard-sized mirrors that generate enough electricity to power 75,000 homes…Each mirror is 37 feet wide and 24 feet tall, and focuses thermal energy on a tower filled with molten salt, which is used to generate steam, which spins turbines that generate electricity…” click here for more
EV Racing Coming To The Streets Of Brooklyn
Electric car racing is coming to Brooklyn
Danielle Muoio, September 21, 2016 (Business Insider)
“…Formula E, the world's first fully electric racing series, is finishing off its season on a 1.21-mile race course in Red Hook, Brooklyn. The course winds around Pier 11 and the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal and will take place July 29 and 30, 2017…The cars can get up to 180 mph on a straight course, and tend to hover around the 150 mph mark for twistier routes…But battery life is still a problem, even for electric race cars. There will be 40 cars for the 20 drivers in the race so racers can switch when their car runs out of life…The upcoming season is Formula E's third and will kick off in Hong Kong in October…Secretive electric car start-up Faraday Future has entered this year's race. Jaguar's very first electric car will also enter…” click here for more
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
ORIGINAL REPORTING: In The Wake Of The Massive Aliso Canyon Leak
Historic Los Angeles methane leak puts natural gas emissions under scrutiny; As SoCalGas works to plug a monster methane leak, warnings abound for the electricity sector
Herman K. Trabish, December 21, 2015 (Utility Dive)
Editor’s note: This leak has now been plugged but the controversy it sparked about locating an antiquated natural gas storage facility adjacent to a city suburb continues to rage.
Southern California Gas (SoCalGas) has sealed the biggest known gas leak in U.S. history at one of its natural gas storage facilities in the Los Angeles region. The leaking methane — a greenhouse gas over 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide — threatened the state's progress in its fight against climate change and continues to compromise the supply of natural gas, which is predominantly methane, to electricity generating plants and gas heating customers in the Southern California region. A fine has been levied against SoCalGas but the massive leak raised larger questions about the electricity sector's move to natural gas as a more environmentally-friendly resource than coal.
The Aliso Canyon facility is one of the four SoCalGas operates to supply a service territory that extends from Central California to the Mexican border. It supplies natural gas power plants that generate electricity for Southern California’s investor-owned and publicly-owned electric utilities and for millions of heating customers. Its storage is an important cog in the way the gas company handles swings in natural gas demand throughout the day in a state getting nearly a third of its electricity from renewables, according to Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies Executive Director V. John White.
Studies suggest that methane leakage can negate any climate benefits over burning coal so the electricity and gas sectors must find ways to limit or eliminate leaks if natural gas is to remain a viable alternative. The Aliso Canyon leak is exemplary of the dangers associate with a natural gas industry that relies on antiquated, inadequate infrastructure until it fails, experts say… click here for more
ORIGINAL REPORTING: The Rise Of Distributed Energy Resources Goes On
DERs in 2016: What experts expect for a booming sector; Tax credit extensions can be a big opportunity for utilities and DER developers in the upcoming year
Herman K. Trabish, January 4, 2016 (Utility Dive)
Editor’s note: The excitement around DER has accelerated since this piece was written, both in the policy arena and the marketplace.
More affordable wind, utility-scale solar, and distributed solar are continuing to leverage new applications in energy storage and smart devices and synergistic distributed energy resources (DERs) are attracting corporate buyers, shared renewables developers, and even mainstream energy sector players. Utilities have increased efforts to incorporate DERs into planning processes, transforming some formerly hostile regulatory proceedings into collaborative, solution-oriented rate design conversations. The growth is already making the grid more reliable and resilient, making it likely Clean Power Plan goals will be met more easily and cost-effectively than expected.
One broad subject DER experts are talking about is the disruptive force of combined DERs. Navigant expects demand response (DR) to be the most widely deployed set of DER technologies in 2016 and going forward, with solar the next biggest deployment among DERs. The combination of solar and storage will be the fast-growing and the most disruptive of the DERs, with standard offerings expanding to include a “full suite” of DERs, including load management and electric vehicle charging… click here for more
ORIGINAL REPORTING: Community Solar Matures And Evolves
How the utility role in community solar is evolving as the sector matures; Everybody loves community solar, but just how the sector will mature is up in the air
Herman K. Trabish, January 7, 2016 (Utility Dive)
Though community solar is still less than 1% of installed U.S. solar capacity, it is clearly a compelling and rapidly-growing model that could turn out to be a utility-owned asset, privately owned, or a hybrid, according to Community Solar Program Design Models from the Solar Electric Power Alliance (SEPA). And while many community solar arrays will be generation only, they can also be paired with storage or other DERs. It provides utilities with a role in solar and provides solar ownership options to many who do not otherwise have them.
Growth is skyrocketing, according to the report, with over 200 MW expected to go online in 2016, taking the cumulative installed capacity from an estimated 100 MW in 2015 to more than 300 MW. Each community solar program is unique but they broadly divide into two categories of ownership and two types of subscriber arrangements. An array might be third-party owned and developed or utility-owned and developed, though the utility might choose to have a third party manage its program. The customer/subscriber might pay up-front for a portion of the array’s panels or instead pay a premium rate for the output of the panels without paying anything upfront…Utilities are also introducing a new generation of community solar projects that go beyond bigger arrays and premium pricing… click here for more
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
TODAY’S STUDY: A Snapshot Of U.S. Solar Right Now
Solar Market Insight Report 2016 Q3
September 2016 (Solar Energy Industries Association/GTM Research) Key Figures
-The U.S. installed 2,051 MWdc of solar PV in Q2 2016, increasing 43% over Q2 2015.
-In the first half of 2016, solar accounted for 26% of all new electric generating capacity brought on-line in the U.S.
-Installing 650 MWdc, residential PV grew only slightly over Q1 2016 but had its largest quarter ever while growing 29% year over year.
-California accounted for 42% of rooftop PV installations in Q2 – its lowest share since Q4 2012 – as markets in states like Utah and Texas begin to account for larger shares of the residential segment.
-While only 7 states added more than 25 MW of rooftop PV in the first half of 2015, 11 states added more than 25 MW over the same period in 2016, continuing a trend of geographic demand diffusion.
-Despite adding less than 10 MW in Q2, community solar is expected to add 100 MW in 2016.
-Over a gigawatt of utility-scale solar was installed for the third consecutive quarter as that segment continues to build out more than 7.8 GWdc of additional projects expected to come online in 2016.
-GTM Research forecasts that 13.9 GWdc of new PV installations will come on-line in 2016, up 85% over 2015. Utility PV is expected to drive the majority of demand, accounting for over 70% of new capacity.
In Q2 2016, the U.S. solar market installed 2,051 megawatts direct current (MWdc), up 43% over Q2 2015. In addition to adding more than 1 GWdc for the eleventh consecutive quarter, for the first time ever, the U.S. added more than 2 GWdc on a quarterly basis in a quarter other than Q4. This record-breaking installation total marks the beginning of an unprecedented wave of growth that will occur throughout the remainder of 2016, specifically within the utility PV segment. With more than 10 GWdc of utility PV currently under construction, the second half of this year and the first half of 2017 are on track to continue setting new records for solar capacity additions.
When accounting for all projects (both distributed and centralized), solar ranked as the second-largest driver of capacity additions across all fuel types in the U.S., accounting for 26% of all new electric generating capacity installed in the first half of 2016. During that same stretch, new storylines across each segment emerged that will not only shape the next 12 months, but which have also raised questions about the long-term drivers of continued growth.
-Utility PV: The timing of the federal ITC extension in December 2015 has complicated the development timeline for the more than 18.5 GWdc of utility PV installations that would have attempted to interconnect in 2016 had the ITC not been extended. While 7.8 GWdc are expected to come on-line in 2H 2016, 5.7 GWdc will spill over into 2017 and an additional 3 GWdc will be pushed out beyond 2017. In turn, more than 65% of the 2017 utility PV installation forecast is expected to stem from project spillover.
-Non-residential PV: For the non-residential PV segment, the major state markets are transitioning toward more diversity in types of project development. Self-consumption projects that avoid system-size limits set under net metering programs and new community solar programs are countering continued weakness in the non-residential rooftop solar. Most notably, community solar programs in California and the Northeast are on track to drive over 100 MWdc of community solar for the first time ever on an annual basis.
-Residential PV: The residential solar market is experiencing different storylines across major and emerging state markets. In a handful of emerging state markets, quarterly growth rates are spiking as national installers tap into new regions that have reached grid parity, where the cost of customer acquisition remains cheap given the plethora of early-mover customers. Meanwhile, major state markets are continuing to grow, but at much slower rates compared to the past few years. Conversations with some installers suggest that the cost and length of customer acquisition are increasing as fewer early mover customers remain, and this challenge is limiting growth, especially in California.
But the definition and scope of an “early mover” customer remains subjective. Equally important, it remains unclear whether customer acquisition challenges are a symptom of a dwindling pool of early mover customers, and whether evolving customer demographics is actually contributing to California’s recent slowdown in demand.
The figure below compares year-over-year residential PV installation growth rates by quarter in California (left y-axis) with each percentage increase in California’s residential rooftop PV addressable market installed (x-axis). GTM Research calculates the addressable market based on cumulative residential PV systems installed as a percentage share of owner occupied homes (U.S. Census Bureau) that have suitable rooftop space for solar (national estimate from NREL).
As the above figure reveals, California experienced hockey-stick levels of growth up through 2013, when California’s solar economics penciled out without state incentive funding and less than 3% of the state’s addressable market had installed rooftop solar. Then, growth rates began to slow in 2014 after eclipsing 3% customer penetration. And while 2015 quarterly growth rates did increase in California, as customers rushed to install amidst federal ITC uncertainty, growth rates during the first half of 2016 have dropped back down to 2014 levels.
Whether or not it’s coincidental, the time and cost of customer acquisition have increased in tandem with a reduction in installation growth beyond 3% customer penetration.
On one hand, the localized nature of the rooftop PV market means that there isn’t a simple, single answer that explains a slowdown in the nation’s largest rooftop PV market. But under GTM Research’s base case forecast, California is on track to install well over 25% of its addressable residential PV market by 2021.
So whether or not it has happened already, California’s position as the largest residential PV market means it will be one of the first state markets to expand beyond early mover customer demographics. In turn, the state will provide the rest of the U.S. with an important precedent for how rooftop solar can continue to scale in a more mature market, as new customer acquisition tactics are tested and loans regain market share.
The challenges and growth opportunities of a more mature customer landscape is a trend that is impacting the non-residential and utility PV markets too. Non-residential customers are increasingly seeking more than just rooftop solar; rather, many are looking for broader integrated energy management solutions that include storage or offsite, large-scale solar. Meanwhile, as utility PV PPA pricing dips below $60/MWh, and in some areas, $50/MWh, procurement opportunities are expanding beyond renewable portfolio standards into non-RPS solicitations that recognize solar’s cost-competitiveness with natural-gas alternatives in long-term resource plans.
Considering the long-term certainty surrounding the federal ITC, three new questions have come to the forefront and will shape the long-term outlook for U.S. solar:
-How does rooftop solar scale beyond early adopters in mature state markets?
-Can non-residential solar grow as part of a broader energy management solution?
-To what extent can non-RPS-driven procurement counter and fill in the gaps left behind by utilities ahead of their RPS obligations?
The above questions are not the only themes expected to define the future of U.S. solar, but they have come to the forefront in 2016 and will play critical roles in the long-term outlook heading into the next decade.
In the meantime, 2016 remains on track to see the installation of a record 13.9 GWdc, with utility PV accounting for over 70% of that annual total. With the federal ITC extended through 2021, and a “commence-construction” rule added, market participants benefit from federal-level policy visibility through 2023. Building off that policy certainty, U.S. solar is expected to remain a double-digit gigawatt annual market through the remainder of this decade. The extent to which it exceeds current projections hinges on the growth of non-RPS utility PV procurement, as well as distributed solar’s ability to grow in a more fragmented rate design and net metering policy landscape.
-Up 1% over Q1 2016
-Up 29% over Q2 2015
Despite residential PV growing on a quarter-over-quarter basis, halfway into the year, we are beginning to see signals of demand moderation for rooftop solar across many major state markets. What was thought to be seasonal decline in installation volumes in Q1 in major markets has continued into Q2, resulting in an average growth rate of 3% in H1 2016 compared to 11% in H1 2015. Conversely, several emerging state markets have been picking up steam in H1 2016, helping to offset slower growth in major state markets.
In particular, demand slowdown in California has had a noticeable impact on national installation levels. In Q2 California accounted for only 42% of national residential installations – the state’s smallest market share since Q4 2012.
California’s slowdown in growth is part of a handful of top 10 state markets that have experienced flat quarterly growth. That said, NEM reforms will continue to play a role in PV adoption. For instance, Arizona continues to see high levels of installation growth in response to APS’ proposed rate reform that would slash solar savings. Looking forward, we expect emerging state markets such as Utah and Texas – both of which will be 50+ MW residential markets in 2016 – to begin to compensate for slowing growth in major states.
-Up 5% from Q1 2016
-Up 49% over Q2 2015
Continuing the trend of Q1 2016, growth in the non-residential PV segment remains constrained on a national level primarily due to weakness in Northeast markets, where expiring incentive programs, protracted debates about NEM cap extensions, and the status and value of virtual net metering have hindered certain commercial sub-segments. Across the major state markets, New Jersey and New York have been able to buck this trend this quarter, though Massachusetts and Maryland were both down from Q1. That said, California’s commercial market was a clear bright spot in Q2, accounting for over 50% of commercial installed capacity on a record-high quarter, helping to offset weakness in other markets.
While we expect community solar to provide an attractive growth opportunity for non-residential developers moving forward, the non-residential space is still struggling to scale across particular sub-segments, including small-scale, unrated industrial C&I customers. Rollbacks to the value of virtual NEM and persistent SREC oversupply in many major state markets continue to slow demand in several states.
-3rd consecutive quarter in which utility PV added over 1 GWdc
-Contracted utility PV pipeline currently totals 21.5 GWdc
The utility PV market continues to serve as the bedrock driver of installation growth in the U.S. solar market, accounting for 53% of capacity installed in H1 2016. The market is on the verge of an unprecedented rate of project completion. Currently, 7.8 GWdc worth of projects in development are under construction and are expected to come on-line before the end of 2016. Consequently, the second half of 2016 will see almost as much capacity come on-line than as all of 2014 and 2015 combined. In the first five weeks of Q3, over 750 MWdc have already come on-line. While 2016 is expected to see a cumulative 9.9 GWdc come on-line, developers have continued to push out more project completion dates into 2017 due to the federal ITC extension.
Several key trends that will shape the near-term utility PV market outlook include continued growth of utility PV outside of renewable portfolio standard (RPS) obligations and increased procurement by municipal and cooperative utilities. 2017 installation volume will be dictated largely by project spillover, with over 65% of projects having been pushed out from 2016. However, over 75% of greenfield origination for 2017 will come from non-RPS projects. While 10 states have 200 MWdc or more operating, 22 states now have 200 MWdc or more in development.
This is in part driven by utilities in both major and emerging markets procuring solar as a hedge against natural-gas price volatility. Underlying these geographic demand and procurement trends is the low price environment for utility PV, with recent PPAs being signed at prices between $35/MWh and $50/MWh…
In December 2015, Congress passed an omnibus spending bill that included a multiyear extension of the federal Investment Tax Credit. Without question, the extension of the federal ITC ranks as the most important policy development for U.S. solar in years. Between this year and the end of the decade, the ITC extension will spur more than 20 GWdc of additional PV capacity, positioning U.S. solar to become a 21 GWdc annual market by 2021.
Looking ahead, the federal ITC will remain at 30% through 2019, and then step down to 26% in 2020 and 22% in 2021. In 2022, it will step down to 10% for third-party-owned residential, non-residential, and utility PV projects (which use the section 48 credit), while expiring entirely for direct-owned residential PV (section 25d credit). Equally important, projects eligible for the section 48 credit that commence construction but do not interconnect in the years 2019, 2020 and 2021 can qualify for correspondingly larger tax credits if they come on-line by the end of 2023. Given the timing of the federal ITC extension, however, the wheels are already in motion for U.S. solar to benefit in 2016 from more than 9 GWdc of late-stage utility PV projects that rushed through development last year. In turn, we expect another record year for the U.S. PV market in 2016, with installations reaching 13.9 GWdc, an 85% increase over 2015.
However, with an unprecedented 10 GWdc of utility PV capacity currently in construction, there remains substantial upside and downside risk to our utility PV outlook. The following figure visualizes the status of the utility PV pipeline in late-stage development, which shows more than 2 GWdc of upside and downside potential that hinge on unique construction and interconnection timelines over the next several months.
Of the total in our H2 2016 base-case utility PV forecast, 8% came on-line in July 2016 and 59% is more than 50% under construction. The remaining 2.5 GWdc is under construction but less than 50% complete (as of August 2016). In addition to the 7.8 GWdc forecasted for 2H 2016, another 2.4 GWdc is under construction, but developers and utilities expect it to spill over into 2017. In a downside scenario, additional capacity at less than 50% complete construction could push out into 2017. Meanwhile, in an upside scenario, a portion of the 2.4 GWdc under construction could ultimately squeeze into December 2016 if interconnection timelines exceed expectations, especially for individual phases of large-scale projects greater than 50 MWdc.
In 2017, while the residential and non-residential PV markets are both expected to grow year-over-year, the U.S. solar market is expected to drop just under 2% on an annual basis. Flat demand in 2017, a departure from the declines presented in previous forecasts, is due to the growing number of utility PV projects that have pushed out completion dates from the second half of this year into 2017. Including the aforementioned spillover of projects in construction, the extension of the federal ITC has enabled nearly 6 GWdc of utility PV to spill over into 2017, providing utilities with necessary breathing room to interconnect a double-digit-gigawatt pipeline of utility PV currently under construction.
By 2019, U.S. solar is expected to resume year-over-year growth across all market segments. And by 2021, more than 30 states in the U.S. will be 100+ MWdc annual solar markets, with 20 of those states home to more than 1 GWdc of operating solar PV…
QUICK NEWS, September 20: Survey Shows People Oppose Fossil Fuels; Solar Bargain Hits World Record; China In Record Wind Build Rate
Survey Shows People Oppose Fossil Fuels [54%] favor federal regulations that would reduce U.S. coal use, survey says
Bill Loveless, September 18, 2016 (USA Today)
Editor’s note: Other findings from the survey in this Quick News item were used posted yesterday.
“…[Just two months before the November elections, energy and climate change are ‘important issues’ for about half of likely voters as they cast their ballots, according to authors of a new survey by the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. 54%] of Americans (67% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans) favor federal regulations that would reduce U.S. coal use, though that support slips to 45% when the question is paired with the assertion that such regulations have resulted in the loss of coal jobs…Moreover, the results raise questions about the extent of local support for a legal challenge of Obama administration climate policy by 24 states…[Other] findings aren’t good for the gas industry and its supporters…Of the six in 10 respondents who had an opinion on fracking, twice as many oppose the practice as support it…” click here for more
Katie Fehrenbacher, September 19, 2016 (Fortune)
“A shockingly low price [of 2.42 cents per kilowatt hour] for energy from solar panels was recently bid during an auction for a [350 MW] solar farm near the [sun-rich] city of Abu Dhabi…[by a] consortium of the Chinese solar panel maker and project builder JinkoSolar JKS -1.56% and the Japanese developer Marubeni…That’s by far the lowest solar panel farm bid out there. A few ultra low-cost large solar panel farms have recently achieved around 4 cents per kilowatt hour, and earlier this year the previous record bid for a solar panel farm in Chile was 2.91 cents per kilowatt hour…In comparison, in the U.S. average costs for energy from all types of new sources, like gas and coal, can cost between 5 and 6 cents per kilowatt hour. So getting to under 2.50 cents puts solar panel farms in an entirely new category and makes it competitive with fossil fuels…[And] that bid is for an auction that hasn’t yet concluded…” click here for more
China In Record Wind Build Rate China embarked on wind power frenzy, says IEA; China has been building two wind turbines every hour…
Roger Harrabin, 20 September 2016 (BBC News)
“This is the world's biggest programme of turbine installation [ever], double that of its nearest rival, the US…The nation’s entire annual increase in energy demand has been fulfilled from the wind…But the [International Energy Agency (IEA)] warns China has built so much coal-fired generating capacity that it is turning off wind turbines for 15% of the time…[because] coal-fired power stations are given priority access to the grid…The average European wind farm is forced to stop generating between 1-2% of the year…State media has reported China’s plans to impose a moratorium on all new coal-fired plants until 2018…The IEA says China installed more than 30,000 MW of new wind energy in 2015 – partly thanks to a rush driven by the Chinese government making its existing subsidies less attractive…Construction has slackened in 2016, but only to a level of more than one turbine per hour…” click here for more
Monday, September 19, 2016
TODAY’S STUDY: A Utility Puts Out Its Vision Of New Energy On A New Grid
The Emerging Clean Energy Economy: Customer-Driven. Modernized. Reliable.
September 2016 (Southern California Edison)
The Power Grid of the Future: Choice, Innovation, Opportunity, and Challenge
Amidst the profound shift underway in the electric power industry, today’s customers are increasingly seeking choice in how they manage their energy. They are adopting distributed energy resources (DERs)—rooftop solar, onsite energy storage, electric vehicles, and energy management systems—to achieve cost savings, cleaner energy, conservation, and enhanced reliability. In response, the industry has begun an era of reinvention to enable these choices and create a clean, reliable energy future.
California is at the forefront of the power system transformation toward a cleaner, more diverse future with reduced carbon emissions. The state is home to 50 percent of the nation’s private solar systems—more than half a million businesses and homes.i It boasts more than 200,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEV)—40 percent of the nation’s PEV sales—with a goal of 1.5 million by 2025.ii With proper support, DERs will not only benefit individual customers, but also could contribute significantly to local economies, clean energy, and grid resiliency.
The path suggested in this report leads to a modern electricity distribution grid and enhanced utility capabilities that will be vital to facilitating these choices and helping customers maximize their investments—while improving the reliability and affordability of the grid for everyone. Decisions made now on how to embrace this change will have profound implications for how the energy grid adapts to meet consumer needs and reduce carbon emissions for the rest of the twenty-first century.
Harnessing the potential of distributed energy resources
To facilitate the transformation, the local power grid must become a plug-and-play platform that integrates an ever-growing set of DER technologies.iii By connecting to this platform, DER owners access a grid that supports their needs as customers and markets that increase the value of their investment. Maximizing this potential for all customers requires a thoughtful approach that:
• Modernizes and reinforces the grid and its operations to improve reliability and integrate distributed resources and other carbon reducing technologies;
• Connects DERs to markets that provide new revenue opportunities; and
• Transitions to customer rate designs and DER programs that better reflect the benefits and costs of distributed resources.
Modernizing and reinforcing the grid will be critical for customers seeking to adopt DERs and connect to the grid— quickly and with minimal hassle. Utilities must anticipate future DER growth and reinforce local grids to accommodate these new resources. Once connected, clusters or concentrations of distributed resources can quickly complicate grid operations. Grid operators need advanced sensors, communications, and automation so they can see what is happening in real time, minimize disruptions, and maintain reliability. To meet these challenges, utilities will expand their capabilities as Distribution System Operators (DSOs) that plan and manage a modernized plug-and-play grid, ensuring that all customers receive safe, reliable, clean energy, while seamlessly integrating rapid growth in distributed resources.
Connecting DERs to markets and new revenue opportunities can encourage innovative new markets and creative solutions that expand customer choice and benefit the grid.
Three potential areas include:
• Wholesale: DSOs will ensure that DERs can connect to wholesale markets to sell services that reduce the need for new large-scale generation, while still maintaining local reliability.
• Distribution: DERs could receive compensation for providing location-specific services to the distribution grid, including the deferral of traditional grid upgrades.
• Third party markets: the distribution grid platform could enable markets for energy transactions between customers or marketplaces for new products and services.
Coupled with declining prices of DERs, these markets could eventually eliminate the need for subsidies and administratively-determined tariffs. DSOs will need to work with resource providers and other stakeholders to shape markets and distributed solutions that support the grid.
Finally, to maintain affordability for all customers, rate designs and programs must transition to share the benefits and costs among customers who deploy DERs to meet a portion of their energy needs and those who do not. Rates should account for the fixed costs of the grid so all customers, including DER owners, pay for access to the modernized and reliable distribution grid and the critical service it provides.v DER owners should receive compensation based on the value at the time and location of the services they deliver.
These massive changes to the grid and markets will take time—possibly more than a decade—to accomplish. But, if utilities, regulators, and distributed energy providers come together now with a sense of urgency, the foundation developing now will be established by the turn of the decade: with functioning markets for DERs, a modernized grid in priority locations, informed customers, proven resource providers, and reduced carbon emissions. Underpinning this, utilities will evolve to become facilitators of customer choice and the clean energy economy by unlocking the benefits of DERs while enhancing the reliability critical to everyone.
1. A modernized grid— essential to improving reliability and enabling distributed energy resources
Customer adoption of DERs can quickly alter the makeup of the electric grid. New devices impact system operations, requiring planners to adjust their forecasts and upgrade plans accordingly. Although independent system operators often run transmission systems and dispatch thousands of resources, the distribution system is more dynamic, fluid, and complex. DSOs will interact with hundreds of thousands—even millions—of distributed resources, and coordinate between control rooms and field crews in real-time to manage new markets and grid operations simultaneously. Utilities already perform many of these functions and have the scale and capability to integrate DERs into the planning, development, and operations of a modernized distribution grid…
2. Access to new markets— essential to expanding distributed energy choices for customers
Distributed energy resources, when connected to a modernized electric grid, may provide valuable services that extend their worth beyond their owners’ specific uses. By monetizing these additional services, DER providers can create innovative new applications that expand the breadth of choices available to customers. Distribution System Operators will become more important in balancing the needs of customers, the grid, and other markets to realize the full potential of DERs. The DSO will offer greater visibility and performance certainty for these resources…
3. Balanced program and rate design—essential to ensuring fair energy access for all
Benefits to the grid can vary significantly from location to location, but current policy tools, such as net energy metering and feed-in tariffs, do not capture these time- and location-related contributions. Regulators need to evaluate rate structures and program to incentivize DER adoption and performance consistent with carbon reduction and other policy goals. This includes assessing the potential for substantial cost shifting among customers…
4. The path forward
Today’s electric power industry is in the midst of profound transformation. One of the biggest challenges is unlocking the tremendous potential that technologies such as rooftop solar, on-site energy storage, electric vehicles, and energy management systems can provide to the local power grid while reducing carbon emissions. Enabling and encouraging DERs will facilitate greater customer choice—while also helping achieve clean energy policies and facilitating the growth of new markets for energy products and services. This transition will likely take more than a decade, which is why it must start now (Figure 7).
The early stages of this evolution will involve three key efforts, all of which will require a partnership among electric power companies, customers, technology providers, and regulators:
Grid modernization and reinforcement. Foundational capabilities like advanced distribution automation should move forward quickly to support increased connection of distributed resources. These technologies, along with proactive upgrades, will support rapid DER expansion so that the pace of adoption does not outgrow the capabilities of the grid…
DER performance validation…DER market design and development…
QUICK NEWS, September 19: People Will Pay To Fight Climate Change; Wind To Keep Getting Cheaper; Tesla Batteries To Ease Aliso Cyn-Caused Power Shortfalls
People Will Pay To Fight Climate Change More are willing to pay to fight climate change, survey says
Bill Loveless, September 18, 2016 (USA Today)
“…[A new survey] found that 65% of Americans think climate change is a problem that the government needs to address, including 84% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans…57% of those polled said they would pay at least $1 more on their monthly electric bill for climate action, including 29% who would pay $20 a month, an amount comparable to federal government estimates of damages from climate change per household…[20%] indicated they would pay $50…[R]esistance to footing a higher electric bill is considerable, too, with 42% of the respondents saying they were unwilling to pay even $1 for such policies…[Only 1% of participants] didn’t respond…Party affiliation is the main determinant of how much cost people would bear, not education, income or geographic location, with Democrats consistently willing to pay more than Republicans, [according to authors of the survey by the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The] findings indicate more public support for paying for climate policies such as a carbon tax, a cap-and-trade plan or other regulation than may have been evident before…” click here for more
Wind To Keep Getting Cheaper Wind energy costs set to continue to decline, according to Berkeley Lab
Joshua Hill, 19 September 2016 (Clean Technica)
“…[E]xperts anticipate wind energy cost reductions of at least 24% to 30% by 2030, and 35% to 41% by 2050 due to larger and more efficient wind turbines, lower capital and operating costs, and other advancements, [according to a new survey from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Typical] onshore projects are expected to remain considerably less expensive than its offshore brethren, while fixed-bottom offshore will be less expensive than floating offshore…[T]here are greater absolute reductions, as well as more uncertainty, in the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind as compared with onshore wind…[The experts also] predicted that there could even be a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030, and more than 50% by 2050…[The five key drivers for wind cost reductions are expected to be] up-front capital cost (CapEx), ongoing operating costs (OpEx), cost of financing (WACC), performance (capacity factor), and project design life…” click here for more
Tesla Batteries To Ease Aliso Cyn-Caused Power Shortfalls Tesla Wins Massive Contract to Help Power the California Grid; It's the latest response to a fossil-fuel disaster.
Tom Randall, September 15, 2016 (Bloomberg News)
“Tesla just won a bid to supply grid-scale power in Southern California to help prevent electricity shortages following the biggest natural gas leak in U.S. history. The Powerpacks, worth tens of millions of dollars, will be operational in record time—by the end of this year…[They] will supply 20 megawatts (80 megawatt-hours) of energy storage to Southern California Edison as part of a wider effort to prevent blackouts by replacing fossil-fuel electricity generation with lithium-ion batteries. Tesla's contribution is enough to power about 2,500 homes for a full day…But the real significance of the deal is the speed with which lithium-ion battery packs are being deployed…The deal fits into Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk's long-term vision of transforming Tesla from an electric car company to a clean-energy company. That's the same motivation behind his pending deal to acquire SolarCity…In total megawatt hours, the Tesla batteries will make up the biggest lithium-ion battery project in the world, though it will soon be surpassed by others…In August, California regulators approved two contracts for AES Corp. to build 37 megawatts of grid-scale energy storage systems to address anticipated power shortfalls stemming from the Aliso Canyon leak…’ click here for more